Electric Vehicle Readiness in Bangladesh: Power Consumption and Demand
Demand Analysis:
According to data from the BRTA, 26,000 personal vehicles were sold in 2019. While recent numbers may be slightly lower, the average price of a personal vehicle stands at $20,000. If we hypothetically consider that all new cars sold in the Bangladeshi market are electric vehicles (EVs), this would amount to 20,000 units.
A car manufacturing company typically needs to sell at least 500,000 units to make the cost of stamping, welding, painting, and assembly plants financially viable.
Even with a demand increase of 200% per year, only 40,000 EV units would be sold annually. It would take approximately 12.5 years to reach the 500,000 unit mark, making the investment unattractive, especially considering it would involve producing only one model for one market. In summary, establishing a manufacturing plant in Bangladesh does not seem feasible.
Exporting the product internationally would require competing with well-established global brands, presenting another challenge.
Energy Consumption:
Assuming 40,000 units are EVs and each requires an average of 50 kWh battery for optimal range, a total of 2 GWh of batteries would be needed. Factoring in system losses, the national grid would need to add 2 GW of peak capacity. Currently, the installed capacity stands at 25 GW.
For 500,000 EV units, the government would need to double the national installed capacity to 50 GW, presenting a significant challenge.
So, where does the future lie?
The future does not lie in quick money-making schemes or merely trading EVs or importing foreign cars. The future lies in locally manufactured EVs, made in Bangladesh.
The future belongs to lean EV companies that heavily invest in research and development (R&D), focusing on quality improvement while ensuring affordability.